The trend-spotting trend

There’s a fun new book out, Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes by Mark J. Penn, written with E. Kinney Zalesne.

Penn is the guy who “identified Soccer Moms as a crucial constituency in President Clinton’s 1996 re-election campaign.” He is “known for his ability to detect relatively small patterns of behavior in our culture — microtrends that are wielding great influence on business, politics, and our personal lives.”

The book identifies over 70 microtrends Penn has spotted that, he says, are changing the way we live. Is that claim a little hyperbolic? Perhaps — if you drill down and note that he counts a large increase in tattooing as a life-changing trend. Ditto with the revelation that teen knitters are growing in numbers.

Still, delivered in little bites a few pages long, the book is both a page-turner and a jump-around romp through some really interesting statistics. Scanning the table of contents, seeking out categories you fall into, and taking a quick peek to see where you fall along the spectrum of trendster is irresistible. (There’s a Microtrending web site as well, with discussion boards and a Microtrend contest.)

Penn breaks up his observations into categories including: Love, Sex and Relationships; Work Life; Race and Religion; Health and Wellness; Family Life; Politics; Teens; Food, Drink and Diet; Lifestyle; Money and Class; Looks and Fashion; Technology; Leisure and Entertainment; Education; and International.

In matters of technology, he says, “The truth is that the most enthusiastic users of technology in America are also the most social people in America,” and that the “implications for technology marketing are staggering.” He also points out a huge change in attitude — where as once upon a time not so long ago being tech-savvy was socially disdained, “now it is at the center of organizing friends, parties, and the social life of the family.”

And now who bears the description of cynical loner? Not the techies. Instead, it’s the New Luddites — folks who are actively engaged in purposeful avoidance of the Internet. Which means they aren’t off line due to financial, geographical or educational obstacles. It means they once were wired and now they are thumbing their noses at computers. Supposedly there are about 15 million folks in this category, and they are profiled as being mostly young, urban and employed.

As for any presumptions anyone had that men are ahead of women on the tech curve — at least financially that’s a myth. Apparently women outspend men 3 to 2 on tech stuff. Known as Tech Fatales (I think I love that term…), they “want their gadgets light, durable and effective, not fast, sharp and zillion-faceted.”

And though he doesn’t ever use the word coworking, Penn certainly hints strongly at the trend in the subcategory Stay-at-Home Workers, filed under Work Life. Some facts he trots out:

• 4.2 million Americans work at home, a 23% increase from 1990 and nearly a 100% increase since 1980.
  This doesn’t include 20 million who work at home sometimes.
• Reasons people work at home include: commute disdain, desire for better life balance and (the biggie) technology has “made home offices nearly indistinguishable from office offices.”
• 53% of at-home workers are women.
• 88% are white.
• 68% have at least some college education.
• 2 in 3 work full time.
• Many make “serious money.”
• 58% run their own businesses.
• 76% of fulltime telecommuters v 56% of on-site workers report high job satisfaction.

Penn also observes this group needs a way to build community — something, he says, that must go beyond instant messaging. And then, there it is — a veiled reference to coworking — he says there’s a market for “shorter-term business locales.” Sounds like coworking to me :)